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Прививка и сохраненные жизни: Израиль
Oct. 29th, 2021 11:06 amПрогностическое моделирование для оценки защитного эффекта "группового иммунитета", показало, что, исходя из данных вакцинирования и смертности от ковида по Израилю, прививка спасла от смерти тысячи стариков весной- в начале лета 2021 года.
В стране привито более 90% тех, кто старше 70 лет.
Исходя из накопленных эпидемиологических данных, и с учетом эффективности файзеровской вакцины, и принятых правительством противоэпидемических мер, в этой когорте предполагалось 370 смертей (брался период со средины марта до 26 июня 2021).
Реальность оказалась чуть жестче- умерло 408 человек (а вообще среди всех возрастных групп- 930 смертей).
А заболело ковидом среди тех, кому за 70 -- 1119 человек.
Эти заболевшие и умершие - не только среди привитых, а просто для возраста "старше 70".
Вероятно, причина в том, что иммунитет со временем снижается и исчезает (у некоторых), и пр.
Однако, согласно этой же модели, если бы не было вакцинирования- то от ковида умерло бы (оценочно, по той же модели, что и 370, и при тех же самых условиях послабления карантинных мер, какие были во время летней волны) - 5120 человек.
Так что выходит, что для этого возраста прививка снижает смертность от ковида более чем в 10 раз ( 408 вс 5120).
Еще у авторов работы вышло, что смертность среди заболевших ковидом "кому за 70", до вакцинации - была 61%, а после массовых прививок- 40%.
The study period to examine the effect of vaccination on mortality was chosen to capture when at least 90% of the population over age 70 were vaccinated for less than seven months. Projected deaths as expected from vaccine efficacy and actual mortality data were compared for the study population with examination of potential confounding effects of government stringency. Average government stringency (Oxford Stringency Index) was calculated in the study period and the preceding period of the pandemic. Potential confounding effects of an age shift in the distribution of deaths were examined by analyzing the distributions of deaths and cases before and after the study period. Results: Confirmed deaths from COVID-19 in the population over 70 after mass vaccination were recorded as 370, versus 408 expected from applying person-days of vaccine efficacy, and 5,120 estimated without vaccinations.
Our study was limited in that it focused on the population of individuals over 70 years old.The number of deathsin this age group was 61% of total deathsbefore mass vaccination of the older population,i.e.,before the study period.During the study period the percentage of deaths in this group was 40%. The study period after vaccinations was limited due to uncertainties related to the Delta variant and the temporal period of vaccine efficacy in individuals. Therefore we limited the study periodto the endof June before the Delta variant created new patterns of rising cases. Thus, the precise results relate to conditions in which the Alpha variant was predominant, and the vaccine efficacy waspresumed to be high.
Аfter vaccines were introduced and had significant uptake,government stringency was lower than in previous periods. Oncea level of 90% vaccination was reached in the older population, the distribution of cases and deaths was similaracross age groups as before,but fewer than expected deaths were seen even as government stringency fell. These results raise the possibility of a pseudo-herd immunity type effect.
Conclusions: Vaccines against COVID-19 saved more lives than expected by simply applying individual vaccine efficacy to the vaccinated population in Israel, despite a loosening of government stringency.
В стране привито более 90% тех, кто старше 70 лет.
Исходя из накопленных эпидемиологических данных, и с учетом эффективности файзеровской вакцины, и принятых правительством противоэпидемических мер, в этой когорте предполагалось 370 смертей (брался период со средины марта до 26 июня 2021).
Реальность оказалась чуть жестче- умерло 408 человек (а вообще среди всех возрастных групп- 930 смертей).
А заболело ковидом среди тех, кому за 70 -- 1119 человек.
Эти заболевшие и умершие - не только среди привитых, а просто для возраста "старше 70".
Вероятно, причина в том, что иммунитет со временем снижается и исчезает (у некоторых), и пр.
Однако, согласно этой же модели, если бы не было вакцинирования- то от ковида умерло бы (оценочно, по той же модели, что и 370, и при тех же самых условиях послабления карантинных мер, какие были во время летней волны) - 5120 человек.
Так что выходит, что для этого возраста прививка снижает смертность от ковида более чем в 10 раз ( 408 вс 5120).
Еще у авторов работы вышло, что смертность среди заболевших ковидом "кому за 70", до вакцинации - была 61%, а после массовых прививок- 40%.
The study period to examine the effect of vaccination on mortality was chosen to capture when at least 90% of the population over age 70 were vaccinated for less than seven months. Projected deaths as expected from vaccine efficacy and actual mortality data were compared for the study population with examination of potential confounding effects of government stringency. Average government stringency (Oxford Stringency Index) was calculated in the study period and the preceding period of the pandemic. Potential confounding effects of an age shift in the distribution of deaths were examined by analyzing the distributions of deaths and cases before and after the study period. Results: Confirmed deaths from COVID-19 in the population over 70 after mass vaccination were recorded as 370, versus 408 expected from applying person-days of vaccine efficacy, and 5,120 estimated without vaccinations.
Our study was limited in that it focused on the population of individuals over 70 years old.The number of deathsin this age group was 61% of total deathsbefore mass vaccination of the older population,i.e.,before the study period.During the study period the percentage of deaths in this group was 40%. The study period after vaccinations was limited due to uncertainties related to the Delta variant and the temporal period of vaccine efficacy in individuals. Therefore we limited the study periodto the endof June before the Delta variant created new patterns of rising cases. Thus, the precise results relate to conditions in which the Alpha variant was predominant, and the vaccine efficacy waspresumed to be high.
Аfter vaccines were introduced and had significant uptake,government stringency was lower than in previous periods. Oncea level of 90% vaccination was reached in the older population, the distribution of cases and deaths was similaracross age groups as before,but fewer than expected deaths were seen even as government stringency fell. These results raise the possibility of a pseudo-herd immunity type effect.
Conclusions: Vaccines against COVID-19 saved more lives than expected by simply applying individual vaccine efficacy to the vaccinated population in Israel, despite a loosening of government stringency.
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