chuka_lis

1)  Впервые за последние 3 года экономика США показала спад. В этом квартале. Разумеется, трамп обвинил в этом - Байдена. И предложил американцам "немножечко потерпеть".
U.S. gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services, shrank at an 0.3% annual rate in the first three months of the year, down from a 2.4% increase at the end of last year The report showed the first decline in the U.S. economy in three years.
Trump blamed former President Joe Biden for the downturn in a post on Truth Social, urging Americans to "BE PATIENT!!!"
Like the president, Navarro pointed the finger at former President Joe Biden, calling the economic situation “fruit of that poison Biden tree” that Trump has been stuck with
Excluding the tariff effects, the underlying economy turned in a solid showing in the first quarter despite tumbling consumer confidence and rising business uncertainty over the import fees. But forecasters expect the economy to slow dramatically later this year, with many predicting a mild recession, as the duties boost prices and hamper spending. "A period of stagnation now likely lies ahead if the current set of tariffs is maintained, with recession the most likely outcome if the additional reciprocal tariffs are imposed in full in July," Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in a note to clients.

2) Как показал анализ первых месяцев 2025 года, торговый дефицит США, с которым борется трамп и ко- резко увеличился, тк все ломанулись побольше покупать импортных товаров, перед тем как введут тарифы  А вот зарубежные партнеры не так резво покупали американские товары,  "перед санкциями".
The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened sharply in March as imports surged, suggesting that trade exerted a large drag on economic growth in the first quarter. The goods trade gap increased 9.6% to $162.0 billion, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. The goods trade gap increased 9.6% to $162.0 billion, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Goods imports soared $16.3 billion to $342.7 billion, likely as businesses rushed to bring in goods to avoid President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.Economists have cautioned that imports, which were also boosted by nonmonetary gold imports, could greatly exaggerate an anticipated economic slowdown in gross domestic product growth in the January-March quarter. Imports are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. Goods exports rose $2.2 billion to $180.8 billion in March.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP declining at a 0.4% rate after adjusting for imports and exports of gold.
Возможно, это явление временное, тк на всю жизнь не напасешься, да и покупательная способность доллара будет ниже.

3) Количество открытых позиций для рабочих мест в марте- сократилось, до самого низкого показателя за полгода.
Job openings in the United States fell in March, with employers posting 7.2 million vacancies, down from 7.5 million in February and 8.1 million in March 2024¹. In December, job openings also fell to 7.6 million, indicating a cooling labor market but still a healthy overall employment situation. Openings remain high by historical standards but have fallen steadily since peaking at 12.1 million in March 2022 when the economy was still bouncing back from COVID-19.
..federal job cuts by billionaire Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency didn't have much impact in the March numbers; federal layoffs actually dipped to 8,000 from February's 19,000, which had been the most since November 2020.
Там же правда пишут, что рынок труда в хоршей форме, сокращений не очень много в частных компаниях иизнесе, и не так уж много подают на гос. поддержку после сокращений. “Hiring holds steady and layoffs dipped a bit, showing that, overall, employers are clinging to the employees they have. But this is likely the calm before the storm, as layoffs are pending in government contractors and manufacturers, and other sectors affected by government layoffs and tariffs.”
В компаниях, наем не то чтобы супер- ну уровне примерно 2012 года, когда был низкий показатель:
Companies’ hiring plans fell in March from 34,580 in February to 13,198. So far this year, companies plan to hire 53,867 workers, a 16% decrease from the 64,163 new hires announced in the first quarter of 2024. It is the lowest Q1 hiring total since 2012 when 52,540 new hiring plans were announced.
Опять же, тут пишут что вот уволили всего несколько десятков тысяч федеральных служащих. Но  это не касается контракников и тех кто на испытательном сроке, по которым данные еще не установили, изза исков и пр.
В других же источниках цифры не настолько малы:
So far this year, the Government has cut 279,445, an increase of 672% from the 36,195 cuts announced in the first quarter of 2024.
U.S.-based employers announced 275,240 job cuts in March, a 60% increase from the 172,017 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 205% from the 90,309 cuts announced in the same month in 2024, which was the highest monthly total recorded last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.Over the last two months, DOGE actions have been attributed to 280,253 layoff plans of federal workers and contractors impacting 27 agencies, according to Challenger tracking. Another 4,429 job cuts have come from the downstream effect of cutting federal aid or ending contracts, impacting mostly Non-Profits and Health organizations.March’s total is the third-highest monthly total ever recorded. The highest monthly total occurred in April 2020 when 671,129 cuts were recorded, followed by May 2020 with 397,016. It is the highest total for the month of March on record, since Challenger began reporting on job cut plans in 1989. И это рекордные показатели увольнений

 

С другой стороны, там и сям звоночки про грядущие или текущие увольнения, например:
Intel was preparing to lay off up to 20% of its current workforce. Given that Intel reported having 108,900 employees at the end of 2024, that 20% cut would equate to roughly just under 22,000 people being laid off.
Layoffs pushed thousands of pharma and biotech professionals into the job market in the first quarter, albeit at a slower pace than last year. During the first three months of 2025, 70 companies let go of about 4,015 employees, an 18% year-over-year drop in people affected, based on BioSpace tallies. Those numbers exclude contract development and manufacturing organizations, contract research organizations, tools and services businesses and medical device firms.When looking at the first quarter’s layoffs, it’s important to note that not all companies disclose downsizing. Biopharmas also sometimes share only the percentage of staff affected rather than exact numbers of people let go.
Tech companies are facing mass layoffs in 2025, with major companies like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta announcing significant job cuts¹. Over a hundred tech companies, primarily American, have laid off a minimum of 29,537 employees since January 2025². In February alone, over 22,000 tech workers have been laid off, and more than 150,000 employees were affected across 549 companies in 2024
Retailers announced 11,709 cuts in March and 57,804 in the first quarter, the second-leading industry in job cuts this year. This is a 370% increase from the 12,148 Retail job cuts announced in Q1 2024.
Consumer products manufacturers have announced 14,619 job cuts so far in 2025, an increase of 54% from the 9,468 cuts announced during the same time last year. Auto makers have announced 7,146 job cuts this year, a 28% increase from the 5,816 job cut plans announced through March 2024.
Financial firms have cut 15,982 job cuts so far this year, down 44% from the 28,715 announced through this point last year.
So far this year, the East region has experienced a steep increase in job cuts, primarily due to the cuts conducted by DOGE. The East experienced a 277% year-over-year increase from 94,406 to 355,992. The District of Columbia saw the largest increase from 34,120 in the first quarter of 2024 to 278,711 in 2025.
На востоке страны увольнения выросли на 277%, на юге- на 41% на Мидвесте- на 25%, на Западе- на 19%, по сравнению с прошлым годом.
- тенденция такая, если судить по данным первого квартала, превзойти увольнения 2024 года (и тд).
Так что хотя с точки зрения одних экспертов, ситуация не такая уж плохая, мне тенденция видится существенно хуже, чем подается в новостях.